Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 08 Feb 2013 06:00 to Sat 09 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Feb 2013 19:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

An extensive cold-core vortex is placed over central Europe with cold and dry air surging south. Despite the dry air mass, 500 hPa temperatures dropping to -30 C or less atop the Mediterranean still result in enough CAPE for scattered thunderstorm development. Other than that, conditions remain hostile for any thunderstorm activity ashore, despite sporadic exceptions like Germany, NE France or N-Italy, where a few short-lived storms can't be ruled out. Most of those onshore areas won't see a lightning area due to the sporadic and short-lived nature of those storms.

DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Shear beneath the vortex remains weak, so the main risk will be marginal hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain along the westward facing coasts. Augmentend LLCAPE may result in a few waterspout events /e.g. W-Greece and W-Turkey with stronger MLCAPE and LL CAPE signals/, but the overall risk seems to be too marginal for any level areas.

The only risk which could match a level 1 would be over far S-Turkey, where an eastward moving cold front will produce heavy rainfall amounts due to continuously onshore moving showers and thunderstorms. This front however exits the forecast area to the east until noon, so the time-frame will be too short for a level 1 area.

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