Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 24 Jan 2013 06:00 to Fri 25 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jan 2013 05:55
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for western Greece, the Aegean, and western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
A deep trough has formed across the Mediterranean. Several vort-maxima will travel around the main trough today. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over Italy. Although cold and and rather dry air has spread into the Mediterranean, steep lapse rates due to the warm sea surface lead to weak CAPE as indicated by latest soundings. Ahead of the Mediterranean trough, a cold front travels into the Aegean. A tongue of moist low-level air will advect northward and is the focus of convective activity today.
DISCUSSION
Greece, Aegean, Turkey
The cold front was located west of Greece in the morning hours and will continue to move eastwards. It will enter Turkey in the evening hours. Latest observations confirm the moisture return ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms have already formed to the west of Greece. Today, a line of thunderstorms is forecast along the cold front that enters the Aegean in the afternoon. Current thinking is that the warm air advection regime will be characterized by rich low-level moisture and strong low-level vertical wind shear as indicated by latest GFS model run. The strongly-forced situation will provide lift and lapse rates will increase during the day. The approaching cold front is therefore expected to lead to thunderstorms. Given the strong low-level vertical wind shear and favorably veering profiles, tornadoes are not ruled out along the leading gust front. Additionally, 25 m/s winds at 850 hPa is expected and severe wind gusts are forecast. Along the western coasts of Turkey, upslope flow will also support an excessive rain threat.
In the wake of the cold front, an intense short-wave trough will cross Greece. As a consequence, showers and thunderstorms will go on through-out the day and locally excessive precipitation is forecast along the western coasts today.
