Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Jan 2013 06:00 to Thu 24 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Jan 2013 23:00
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Western Greece mainly for the excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A complex synoptic-scale pattern at mid/upper troposphere is forecast with generally broad area of low geopotentials over much of Europe and several smaller scale disturbances that will be embedded in this area. Perhaps the most prominent is going to be a well defined short-wave trough digging southeastwards towards the South-Central Mediterranean. Another one, more subtle in size, but accompanied by a sharply defined jet-streak will rapidly translate over the Atlantic ocean towards the Bay of Biscal during the evening and night hours. Southeastern sector of Europe is also forecast to be under the influence of a trough.

Going towards the surface, not much of a change is expected in contrast with the previous days - relatively cold and dry airmass is observed over much of Europe, perhaps apart from the southern and eastern Mediterranean. Surface cyclogenesis is forecast over the Gulf of Lyon, with center of the low slowly translating towards the Ligurian Sea.

Lack of low level moisture will be the main limitation of any significant instability built up. However, steep lapse rates induced by very cold mid-tropospheric levels will compensate for this, along with strong forcing that will be associated with the short-wave troughs. Even though strong coastal uplift along with the favourable forcing might easily contribute to the several rounds of DMC over e.g. Northern Algeria, Southwestern Italy or Western Greece coastlines, lack of the low level moisture should prevent very significant probability of excessive convective rainfall events. Nevertheless, a slightly more pronounced moisture recovery and higher CAPE values could occur in case of the Ionian Sea and coastal areas of Western Greece and therefore at least a low-end Level 1 seems to be warranted.