Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 16 Jan 2013 06:00 to Thu 17 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 15 Jan 2013 22:26
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Long wave trough persists over Western Europe and much of the Mediterranean as an arctic airmass has overspread the area. Several short-wave troughs with vorticity maxima ahead of their axis will rotate around the base of the long-wave. The first, most prominent one, will translate from Southern Italy towards the Aegean and Black Sea. Another one will affect the Western and Central Mediterranean during the night and morning hours. Close to the surface, a deep low pressure system is forecast to be centered over Northern Italy with a dominant high over Scandinavia.

As cold mid-level temperatures cover the Mediterranean region, quite steep lapse rates will be the result. Despite rather meager low level moisture, at least marginal instability should form. Subsequently, a relatively widespread area should be under the threat of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, easily forced by the pronounced short-wave troughs.

DISCUSSION

... Western Turkey ...

Even though low level moisture will be limited at best, very favourable forcing on the forward flank of the short-wave trough, along with the exit region of the upper level jet-streak, should strongly aid in widespread DMC activity especially in the evening hours. Locally, excessive precipitation could be observed, as strong uplift is aided by steeply inclined coastlines. Strong onshore flow will promote high LLS values along with enhanced SREH, so that some potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts should exist. Major question in case of these threats is the overlap of CAPE and LLS which might be confined only to a rather narrow area along the coastline. Nevertheless, it seems that Lvl 1 should be warranted for the region, especially for its northern part, where forcing should be most pronounced.