Valid: Tue 08 Jan 2013 06:00 to Wed 09 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 08 Jan 2013 06:51
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
A deep trough is precent across south-eastern Europe, and very cold mid-level air has spread across Turkey and the east Mediterranean Sea. Steep lapse rates are expected across the Black Sea, Turkey, and the east Mediterranean. However, low-level moisture is only marginal over most places. Best boundary-layer moisture can be expected across the Black Sea, where snow showers may produce thunder today. Weak vertical wind shear is expected and a waterspout is not ruled out near the Turkish coast. Convective activity will weaken and spread eastward during the period.
Across western Europe, stable profiles are forecast in the range of a broad ridge. A mid-level short-wave trough will enter the Iberian Peninsula late in the period. Models indicate that a tongue of rich low-level moisture will spread northward ahead of the associated cold front. QG forcing will lead to steepening lapse rates, and weak CAPE may be possible. Low-level convergence along the cold front will likely lead to showers and a few thunderstorms. However, organized storms seem to be inlikely given the weak instability and vertical wind shear.