Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 06 Jan 2013 06:00 to Mon 07 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Jan 2013 05:49
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Between a western European upper ridge and an eastern European upper trough cold air is transported with a strong northerly component from Scandinavia toward the eastern Mediterranean Sea area. At sea level, high pressure center lies over France and low pressure centers are found over Ukraine and south of Turkey. The latter lies at the apex of the upper trough and is associated with strong quasi-geostrophic and PV lifting mechanisms, intensifying, while cold unstable air generates abundant thunderstorms over the Mediterranean from Greece to northern Africa, Cyprus and the Middle East. High precipitation maxima are forecast by the GFS model for Syria and Libanon Sunday night. Model hodographs exhibit weak storm-relative wind vectors in low to mid levels and stronger in the upper levels. So, storms will likely exhibit eastward sheared anvils but have no ingestion of helical flow into their updrafts. Therefore severe potential is low. Except for isolated places in the southern Aegean Sea area (and northwestern Middle East), swift storm motion should preclude large rain sums.