Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 03 Jan 2013 06:00 to Fri 04 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Jan 2013 05:56
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A ridge amplifies across western Europe. At its south-eastern flank, a cut-off low leaves the west Mediterranean and migrates into northern Africa in the morning hours. Across northern and eastern Europe, a north-westerly flow is present. An intense short-wave trough will cross Scandinavia and the Baltic States today. At low levels, moisture is rather limited over most places. Dry air spreads into the Mediterranean with northerly surface winds.

Best potential of isolated thunderstorms exists across the south Mediterranean Sea, where 6 g/kg mixing ratio are present in the morning hours. Additionally, lapse rates are relatively steep near the base of the cut-off low but will decrease during the period. As a consequence, some showers and thunderstorms are expected to go on in the morning hours whereas convective activity will decrease later on. Weak vertical wind shear is forecast and organized storms are not expected.

Across Scandinavia and the Baltic States, the approaching trough will be associated with steep mid-level lapse rates. However, low-level will be rather cold and dry. Models do not indicate CAPE as a consequence and chances of thunderstorms are expected to be low.