Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 to Mon 31 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 30 Dec 2012 01:17
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

The northwestern half of Europe is under the influence of westerly flow around a large depression with a center passing between the Faroe and Shetland islands. A body of cold unstable air enters the North Sea region in the morning, and will activate convection, but CAPE is weak and boundary layer absolute humidity values well below 4 g/kg should inhibit electrification, save for a few isolated flashes, below the 15% probability threshold. Near western Norway chances may be a little higher due to coastal convergence and higher terrain.
A ridge is situated over southwestern Europe, Alpine region, Balkan and western Russia. Another low and upper cold pool lies stationary near Crete and causes a continuous flow of slightly unstable but not very moist air to the southwestern tip of Turkey, with repeated convective storms likely to cause excessive rain sums with flooding in some areas, reason for a level 1. Waterspout type tornadoes may also occur in convective cells associated witrh this low pressure area. The deep layer shear is reducing from moderate levels to about 10 m/s, and hail may be observed but is unlikely to become large.