Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 28 Dec 2012 18:48
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Greece for excessive convective precipitation and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for SW Turkey mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A very intense low pressure system with a center pressure below 945 hPa around Iceland is the steering system for the weather in most parts of western and central Europe. Along the axis of the trough which will make progress from W Ireland towards Benelux. The greatest chance for some convection is in the vicinity of the trough axis. As most of the strong deep layer shear is found ahead of the convectively unstable region, severe convection should be rather unlikely. But as common for almost all strong extratropical cyclones, severe non-convective wind gusts will occur over western Europe, preferably in the warm sector over UK.

Another low pressure system is centered over the Ionian Sea region and leads to instability over the central and eastern parts of the Mediterranean. Rather decent shear and only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE suggest a low threat of severe wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail, but at least GFS points at intense convective precipitation. A level 1 is issued for parts of Greece and the coastal areas of Turkey. Strong onshore winds with 20 - 25 m/s at 850 hPa may lead to severe wind gusts in parts of Greece.