Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Dec 2012 06:00 to Fri 21 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Dec 2012 09:03
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large trough is situated across eastern Europe. Dry low-level air has spread across most of the forecast area. Some low-level moisture is still present across the southern Aegean. Combined with steep lapse rates near the base of the trough and lift along a cold front moving southward, deep moist convection is possible in the morning hours. Given the marginal instability and weak vertical wind shear, severe convection is not likely.

Across south-western Europe, a short-wave trough moves across the Bay of Biscay with the west-northwesterly flow. Weak boundary-layer moisture is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Some showers may develop, though.