Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 10 Dec 2012 06:00 to Tue 11 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 Dec 2012 21:47
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 1 was issued for Albania mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for S Turkey for excessive convective precipitation.


SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A sharp trough over central Europe will cross the Alps on Monday, leading to cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Genoa. Due to quite warm SSTs and cold upper levels, some instability will arise and showers / thunderstorms should be possible over the Adriatic Sea and parts of the Tyrrhenian Sea. Deep layer shear may exceed 20 m/s in some places but overall threat of severe convection should be rather low as instability is meager. Given locally 15 - 20 m/s at 850 hPa, one can't exclude an isolated severe wind gust or an isolated tornado due to locally enhanced LL shear. During the evening hours, strong onshore advection of moist and unstable air will pose a risk of excessive precipitation for Albania and surrounding countries.

Remnants of an upper low ahead of western Turkey will make progress towards the east / northeast. Despite the relatively low instability, local flash flood events due to excessive convective precipitation are well possible as strong onshore moisture advection and backbuilding multicellular systems are expected. Other types of severe weather are rather unlikely as deep layer shear is considerably weak.