Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 09 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 07 Dec 2012 22:01
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for the N-Aegean Sea mainly for heavy rainfall amounts.

A level 1 was issued for the E-Ionian Sea mainly for heavy rainfall amounts.

SYNOPSIS

Synoptic-wise, not much has changed during the past 24 h. Extensive branch of the polar vortex remains in place over Europe with at least 3 embedded vortices. The most dominant one enters the C-Mediterranean with gradually intensifying vorticity also in the lower troposphere. This cold-core feature will be the main focus for CI while moving atop the warm Mediterranean. For the rest of Europe, marginal moisture keeps DMC chances very limited (despite a few offshore places over the North and Baltic Sea). Very intense bora winds are forecast along the NE-Adriatic Sea.

DISCUSSION

... C Mediterranean, the Ionian and Aegean Sea ...

A strong vortex enters the C Mediterranean with an increasing T-SST spread (SSTs in excess of 16 C for most places). Therefore, scattered CI is forecast in the highlighted areas, but modest CAPE and weak shear preclude organized convection.

Nevertheless, as the broad vortex strengthens also in the lower troposphere, LL ageostrophic wind field intensifies and may assist in heavy rainfall amounts within the level 1 areas (N-Aegean Sea during the night). We decided to keep the level 1 confined to the Ionian Sea, as CAA further north should bring snow levels down quite fast which also lowers the run-off. Another risk will be a few waterspout events over the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Sea but no level will be issued due to washy signals in different model fields.

Sporadic CI occurs over the far north North-Sea / Baltic Sea, but coverage remains too low for a 15-% lightning area.

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