Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 07 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sat 08 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 06 Dec 2012 17:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep branch of the polar vortex is situated over Europe with numerous vortices rotating cyclonically around the main vortex of interest (centered over Poland).

An exiting upper trough keeps DMC alive over the Aegean Sea and W-Turkey mainly until noon with a rapid decrease thereafter. Enhanced LL CAPE and weak background shear pose an isolated waterspout risk mainly along the coast of W-Turkey. No level 1 will be issued due to the limited time-frame and the overall marginal set-up for spout development.

A strengthening vortex enters the W-Mediterranean during the night with a gradual increase of offshore CAPE. The heavy rain risk along the W-CNTRL coast of Italy and the E-coast of the Adriatic Sea may see an increase, but the progressive nature and the late onset of precipitation should keep the rainfall amounts below a level 1 threshold.

Elsewhere, sporadic CI is possible with sub-severe convection.