Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Dec 2012 06:00 to Thu 06 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Dec 2012 08:44
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for the Eastern Aegean Sea and Western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough pattern has established over Europe with its axis stretching from Norway into the Ionian Sea. Trough is filled with cold and rather dry airmass with no significant frontal boundary associated with any of the low pressure centers over the continental Europe. In the northwesterly flow, a belt of steep mid-level lapse rates has spread over much of the Mediterranean suggested by 00 UTC sounding measurements. However, meager low level moisture prevents from the significant latent instability build-up. Better situation will probably exist over the Aegean Sea / Western Turkey, where southerly low level flow will allow for some moisture return. Generally speaking, scattered DMC is forecast across most of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

... Eastern Aegean / Western Turkey

As the mid / upper tropospheric trough approaches the area, strengthening low level flow (which might exceed 20 m/s at 850 hPa level) will allow for rapid moisture return from the south with subsequent dew-point increase. With steep mid-level lapse rates spreading eastwards during the forecast period, some hundreds J/kg of CAPE should be observed. Strong southerly flow, favourable "forcing" factor as well as high rainfall sums predicted by NWP point to the possibility of excessive rainfall event. DLS should stay moderate (10 to 20 m/s) with LLS being significantly enhanced by the low-level jet over the inland area. If strong LLS overlaps with at least some low-level instability, tornado event might become possible,but nature of this overlap is highly questionable at the moment.