Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Dec 2012 06:00 to Mon 03 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Dec 2012 07:46
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for western Greece, Aegean Sea and western Turkey mainly for tornadoes and excessive convective precipitation, as well as large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for the Ionean and Aegean Sea areas including parts of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, mainly for excessive convective precipitation, chance of tornadoes and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure area is dominating the central Mediterranean area. The maritime arctic airmass is conquering more of Europe from the northwest with only Italy and Balkan to go. The main cold front of interested is the one that separates the cool unstable Italian airmass from the warm unstable eastern Mediterranean airmass. A large upper trough shifts eastwards and sends the jetstream over the warm sector, where CAPE builds up to some 500 J/kg.
DISCUSSION
...Ionean/Aegean Sea regions...
An environment very favorable for supercell storms is advecting into Greece and Turkey. It is characterized by 30 m/s deep layer shear over several hundred J/kg CAPE, with curved hodographs yielding 200-500 mē/sē 0-3 km SREH, the maximum should be over western Turkey during the evening. These supercells can bring large hail, wind gusts of more than 25 m/s mainly in northern parts of the areas where flow is strongest, and should be capable of producing significant tornadoes, given the 0-1 km shear vector magnitudes of 10-20 m/s and low condensation level. Excessive rain should be expected locally where unstable airmass is forced over higher terrain in particular at the convergence line associated with the cold front, which drags longest over northern parts of the level 2 areas.
