Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 22 Nov 2012 06:00 to Fri 23 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 21 Nov 2012 21:26
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION

A ridge extends from the central Mediterranean to eastern Europe. An intense trough will move into north-western Europe during the period. This will be associated with a cold front moving into the North-Sea region and northern France. Stable air masses will limit convection over most places. In the wake of the cold front, some showers and thunderstorms may develop near the trough's base due to rather steep lapse rates and relatively moist low-level air.

Across the Mediterranean, convectively mixed air is present in the range of weak geopotential centred across Turkey. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the forecast period in a weakly-sheared environment. A few waterspouts may be possible, but weakening lapse rates will limit the potential gradually. Convective activity can also evolve across the Adriatic when a short-wave trough enters the region at the end of the forecast period. Weak vertical wind shear will limit severe potential.