Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 08 Nov 2012 06:00 to Fri 09 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 07 Nov 2012 22:37
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southern Spain mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Southern Europe is dominated by a ridge axis and two flanking troughs near the Iberian Peninsula and over the Aegean Sea. To the north, a ridge axis crosses the British Isles in the wake of low geopotential over north-eastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Iberian Peninsula

Ahead of the trough west of Iberia, a rather strong southerly flow is forecast. Warm air advection is expected across the Iberian Peninsula. Lapse rates will be limited, but low-level easterly winds will advect moisture from the Mediterranean Sea upslope. Weak CAPE is forecast to evolve during the day and isolated storms are expected to develop in the afternoon hours. Vertical wind shear is strong and exceeds 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km, so that supercells seem to be likely. Large hail is expected with these storms. Further west, storms will go on through-out the period along a frontal boundary given strong low-level forcing. Vertical wind shear is weaker across northern Portugal, but increases further south, especially at low-levels. A few mesocyclones may develop there, and a tornado is not ruled out completely, but the potential seems to be very limited.

Aegean, southern Turkey

A trough moves eastward into southern Turkey. At low-levels, a north-westerly flow advects dry air masses that will replace rich low-level moisture. Therefore, potential of thunderstorms will gradually decrease. Especially in the morning hours, storms may be possible and an isolated severe event is not ruled out given rather strong vertical wind shear.