Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 06 Nov 2012 06:00 to Wed 07 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Nov 2012 23:34
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The major trough continues to move east and finally enters the E/NE parts of Europe. In its wake a cold and dry air mass affects most of Europe with infiltration of maritime air from the Atlantic during the end of the forecast.

Another weak lee cyclogenesis evolves south of the Alps although short-lived. Nevertheless, somewhat better moisture remains in place over the NE-Adriatic Sea beneath cold mid-levels. Therefore a plume of low-end CAPE evolves during the day before higher thetae airmass exits the N-Adriatic Sea to the south.
As long as the lee low is present, convergent flow affects the N-Adriatic Sea and assists in repeatedly evolving showers and isolated thunderstorms. Despite meager moisture content, heavy rain will be the main risk although below our level 1 criterion. If a persistent convergence zone beneath strong westerlies verifies, we might even see a temporarily back-building/training cluster along the coasts of the NE Adriatic Sea with locally higher rainfall amounts. An isolated waterspout event is possible along the W coast of Croatia. The thunderstorm risk gradually moves southbound during the night.

Elsewhere no organized thunderstorm risk is expected.