Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 09 Oct 2012 06:00 to Wed 10 Oct 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 08 Oct 2012 23:28
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for Baltic States and NE Poland mainly for strong to severe wind gusts and marginal hail.

A level 1 was issued for central Italy mainly for large hail, strong wind gusts and locally intense rain.

SYNOPSIS

A dominant feature on Tuesday will be a long-wave trough centered over NE Europe, while a ridge remains stationary over SW Europe and Mediterranean. A short-wave impulse crosses Italy from the NW. Another trough is located over eastern Atlantic sea and maintains the WAA along the western flank of the ridge towards western Europe. Some storms might form there given the unstable airmass in place. A SFC low translates from the southern Scandinavia towards Baltic States and serves as a focus for some convective activity.

DISCUSSION

... A Baltic sea and surroundings ...

An upper low / strong DCVA moves across the Baltic sea inland with a rather deep SFC low beneath. Very cold mid-level airmass (below -30 degrees C) will overspread the region which should yield to some marginal instability within the strongly sheared environment. Some organization could occur within the convective storms mainly along the cold front and within the cold airmass behind it. The strongest cells could spark strong to severe wind gusts and some hail, a marginal level 1 was issued to cover this potential.

... central Italy ...

An impulse crosses Italy from NW to SE during the forecast period. Its placed beneath the jet streak where moderate instability overlaps with good shear should release some organized storms. Those should mainly be daytime driven storms capable of producing hail, winds and intense rain. It seems a level 1 is warranted over these areas.