Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 07 Oct 2012 06:00 to Mon 08 Oct 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 07 Oct 2012 06:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia and Romania mainly for a chance of an isolated tornado or large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Lows are present over Scandinavia and the Atlantic, with a high in between over British Isles and western Europe mainland.
A cold front is moving southeastward through the region Austria, Hungary, Romania and western Balkan. It is backed by a strong PV intrusion. Iberian peninsula and later western France are in a warm sector. Most CAPE is found across the eastern Mediterranean around Cyprus. Some waterspout type tornadoes may occur there under slow-moving storms.

DISCUSSION

...NW Balkan area...

Some 20 m/s DLS is present and may induce rotating updrafts. LCLs are below 1 km and 0-1 km shear can locally reach 10-15 m/s, mostly predicted to increase as the BL stabilizes during the evening. An isolated tornado or large hail event is not ruled out.if storms manage to grow in the low CAPE, strongly forced environment. The occlusion over eastern Hungary/northwestern Romania may be a focus for this. Over Hungary the frontal passage can be quite gusty.