Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Sep 2012 06:00 to Fri 21 Sep 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Sep 2012 05:58
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the southern Adriatic, southern Balkans, northern Aegean, and southern Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A sharp trough crosses the Balkan region an forms a cut-off low across Romania at the end of the period. Unseasonably cool and dry air masses will spread into the Balkans with this feature. In the wake of this trough, a broad ridge spreads into the Mediterranean, whereas an intense trough will affect northern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Aegean to southern Balkans and southern Italy

The surface cold front will be the main feature associated with deep moist convection today. Currently across the souhern Adriatic Sea and Italy, it will rapidly move south-eastward crossing he southern Balkans during the day. Ahead of the cold front, moist and slightly unstable air masses are present. Given strong forcing, linear MCSs have developed along the cold front capable of producing excessive precipitation. Given rather weak vertical wind shear, storms are not expected to produce large hail or tornadoes. However, severe wind gusts may be possible in the wake of the storms due to the strong Bora. Dry air masses in the wake of the cold front will limit thunderstorm potential, although some isolated storms have developed in association with the very sharp trough axis across Austria in the morning hours.