Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 15 Jul 2012 19:00 to Mon 16 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Jul 2012 19:08
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

A level 2 was issued for Romania, Ukraine and W Russia for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Algeria and N Tunisia for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

See previous forecast.

DISCUSSION

The level 3 region in W Romania and SW Ukraine was downgraded due to high CIN revealed by the 12Z soundings which is likely to keep the storm coverage at a low level. Significant severe weather like very large hail and severe winds above F1 intensity is still possible but the expected coverage is not as high as expected from the previous model runs.

The level 1 over the Netherlands and NW Germany was removed due to stabilization of the boundary layer and therefore less convective activity and a marginal tornado risk. Some slight adaption was made to the lightning areas.