Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 29 May 2012 06:00 to Wed 30 May 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 29 May 2012 05:46
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for W France and N Italy mainly for large hail and local excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for N Algeria and N Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
High geopotential heights are found over most portions of Europe except for Scandinavia and NW Russia. A weak upper low over the Balkans may lead to unsettled conditions over SE Europe. Warm and unstable air is found in most places of Europe, even near the axis of the upper ridge which extends from France towards Greenland. On Monday, most convection will occur in a low shear environment.
DISCUSSION
...W/ SW France and N Italy...
Recent models show that MLCAPE in order of 1000 - 1500 J/kg is likely created during the day which allows storms in a low shear environment to become marginally severe. The prominent threat should be large hail and local excessive precipitation.
...N Algeria, Tunisia...
Some 15 - 20 m/s of deep layer shear and 150 - 200 mē/sē SRH3 overlap with some hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are likely to occur and in such an environment they are likely to become well-organized multicells or supercells which will pose a risk of large hail and/ or severe wind gusts.
