Valid: Sun 18 Mar 2012 06:00 to Mon 19 Mar 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 17 Mar 2012 20:08
No threat levels were issued.
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
An upper trough over the Bay of Biscay shifts slowly eastwards while it undergoes a cut-off process. During the translation into a cut-off low, its axis shifts from N-S direction towards NE-SW. Some hundred J/kg CAPE will be created in the vicinity of the upper cold core and scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur over parts of France, Spain and the Bay of Biscay.
Severe weather is not expected on Sunday as instability is rather marginal and regions with instability don't overlap with strong 0-6 km shear. A small zone with augmented deep layer shear and some instability might exist over SE France, Switzerland and N Italy but convective initiation is not forecast by the majority of the model pool.