Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 24 Feb 2012 06:00 to Sat 25 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 23 Feb 2012 18:40
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The rather calm weather pattern for deep convection continues during the forecast period. The main feature of interest will be a 980 hPa depression, which moves ashore along the CNTRL coast of Norway while filling gradually. The background flow will be strong with 850 hPa winds at or above 25 m/s. Some marginal CAPE is present along the coast as a mixed maritime air mass moves in from the NW with a sporadic thunderstorm event possible. Over central Norway and Sweden, a strong cross barrier flow and subsidence in the lee of the mountain range keep chances for any deeper convection near zero. Nevertheless, strong to severe wind gusts are likely with any enhanced convective segment/shower.

Further south, a weak cold front crosses Poland during the afternoon and evening hours from the NW. Again, weak SBCAPE is expected which may enhance downward momentum with each convective feature as 850 hPa winds remain at or above 20 m/s. No level will be introduced due to the overall hostile environment for deep convection.