Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 23 Feb 2012 06:00 to Fri 24 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Feb 2012 21:56
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Low geopotential is expected over southern Europe, with a trough center to the south of Italy that moves southward during the period. A moist airmass is situated to the east and north of this trough and affects the Mediterranean Sea to the south of Greece and Italy, while drier air spreads southward from the European continent. Along a convergence zone that extends along the tongue of moist low-level air, deep moist convection is forecast due to rather steep mid-level lapse rates, rather high moisture, and some forcing. These storms will move northward initially given southerly mid-level winds at the eastern flank of the trough. Although the vertical wind shear is rather strong, threat of severe convection seems to be very limited given the dry low-level flow over the Greece and Italy region. During the day, the threat will even decrease as the trough moves southward.