Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 21 Feb 2012 06:00 to Wed 22 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Feb 2012 21:21
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of S Italy mainly for excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A ridge(high pressure area developing over central Europe after the frontal passage, while the cut-off low wobbles over the south-central Mediterranean. During the second part of the forecast period, this low results in a secondary cyclogenesis over the southern Mediterranean. This will be the focus for convective storms on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

... parts of S Italy and Malta...

A progressive deepening low slowly moves from E Tunisia towards Sicily with rather strong WAA on its eastern flank. Providing healthy moisture and large scale ascent for convection/precipitation. Moderate shear will be overlaping with some hundreds of MLCAPE, which should be sufficient for some organized storms. Those will be capable of producing intense convective rain which could cause local flash floods over the highlighted areas.

Elsewhere, calm winter period continues.