Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 20 Feb 2012 14:00 to Tue 21 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 20 Feb 2012 13:43
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Latest VIS imagery shows the upper low entering the W-Mediterranean but no real increase in DMC can be seen (despite somewhat more active sides along the SW-ward facing coasts of the Tyrrhenian/Adriatic Sea, where some moisture convergence takes place). This feature keeps going to the SW but compared to yesterday model runs its motion is a bit more displaced to the east and it will be somewhat stronger. This now increases confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms after sunset within the highlighted area, as moisture filters into the broad surface vortex/BL moisture recovers (especially after midnight). We therefore upgraded most parts of the W-Mediterranean to a 15-% thunderstorm area. CAPE is weak and shear marginal at best, so nothing severe is anticipated.

Thunderstorms continue also outside the thunderstorm area, but fuzzy foci/sporadic activity for development preclude any thunderstorm probabilities.