Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Feb 2012 08:00 to Thu 16 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Feb 2012 08:53
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The two main macrosynoptic players remain in the form of a large ridge over the Atlantic and a deep trough over most of Central and Eastern Europe. Between these two features, strong 300 hPa level jet-stream, with speeds over 60 m/s is forecast. In its exit region, divergence supports cyclogenesis at all levels of troposphere, turning a short wave trough into a fully developed low. This disturbance is forecast to affect mostly Central Europe during the day and Central to Eastern Mediterranean during the night hours.

Some low topped, weakly electrified convection is quite possible over Central Europe thanks to the advection of high lapse rates airmass. Both low and deep layer shear are forecast to be rather strong (e.g. LLS over 15 m/s) and significant forcing is forecast from the upper level features. Nevertheless, degree of instability will likely not allow for any significant updrafts that could attain better degree of organisation and no threat level is issued. Still, gusty winds will be very likely with the passage of DMC in this setup.