Valid: Sat 11 Feb 2012 06:00 to Sun 12 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 11 Feb 2012 07:24
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
The dominance of high pressure from Russia through central Europe to west of Ireland is waning over the next few days, with low pressure creeping in from the north and south, pushing the blocking high to the Atlantic. But during this forecast period high pressure and cold air stay in place, with a rather vigorous low almost stationary over Italy. Tight but weakening pressure gradiients are present over the western Balkan. The low steers a plume of warm air from Libya into Albania and surroundings and convection will produce quite persistent rain, but instability and water content and advection are low enough to preclude a excessive precipitation threat. While shear and helicity are strong over the western Balkan, as well as at the Adriatic/central Italy occlusion, it seems not overlapping with decent instability and hence no threat level is issued.