Valid: Fri 10 Feb 2012 06:00 to Sat 11 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 09 Feb 2012 17:29
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A cold-core low enters the W-Mediterranean region during the forecast and assists in the development and intensification of a surface depression over Italy. This feature has not a lot of moisture to work with, so mainly offshore areas see some weak instability build-up ( in the range of 100-300 J/kg SBCAPE). Expect isolated thunderstorms over a broad area atop the CNTRL Mediterranean until 18Z, as LL depression consolidates. Afterwards, the thunderstorm threat becomes more widespread over the Ionian and Adriatic Sea (mainly eastern parts), where some moisture advection is underway. A mixture of single cells and multicells is anticipated with sleet and strong wind gusts. Some heavy rainfall may spread onshore along the SE cost of the Adriatic Sea, but nothing severe/excessive is anticipated.
With strengthening WAA regime expected and keeping similar events in the past in mind, we nudged the thunderstorm probabilities a bit inland to account for sporadic, elevated convection well onshore....by name: parts of Albania and Montenegro.
A cold and dry air mass persists over the rest of Europe, precluding DMC.