Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 09 Feb 2012 06:00 to Fri 10 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 08 Feb 2012 12:46
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The main frontal zone will be south of the forecast area at Thursday. The cyclonically sheared flank of the mid-level jet surrounding the European trough will affect the east Mediterranean through-out the period. At lower levels, the west Mediterranean is affected by northerly winds behind a cold front. Upslope flow is expected along the northern coasts of Algeria and Tunisia. Further east, a low will deepen to the south of Italy, leading to some moisture pooling. Some low-level moisture is also present to the south of Greece and Turkey. Current thinking is that storms will develop in regions with rather high moisture, while lapse rates will be steep over most of the Mediterranean. The low-level convergence will be the focus of convective activity, especially along the African coasts, as well as to the south of Italy and Turkey. For the latter region, waterspouts are forecast as low-level buoyancy may be rather high locally. Organized storms are not expected as vertical wind shear is weak through-out the period.