Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 04 Feb 2012 06:00 to Sun 05 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Feb 2012 02:40
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the east coast of the southern Adriatic and Ionian Sea mainly for a chance of locally excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure dominates from Russia to the Azores. The Mediterranean is home to a low pressure system surrounded by strong pressure gradients to the north, centered over southern Italy with a trough/low over Sardinia. Convection with thunder is possible under the cold upper airmass, mainly between Algeria and Sardinia. Over the Ionian Sea and southern Adriatic Sea a relatively warm plume of air (WBPT around 7-9C) is advected northward, associated with some CAPE for storms and moderate vertical wind shear.

DISCUSSION

...east coast of the southern Adriatic and Ionian Sea...

The warm plume will advect into the shores of Bosnia, Montenegro, southern Albania and western Greece. Thunderstorms are likely, and may stick on upslope sides of orography, causing a slight excessive precipitation threat. Snow accumulations will be possible at higher elevations, but since this is effectively warm airmass it isn't a large concern for lower regions. Vertical wind shear is decent, with SREH elevated but under 200 m2/s2 over sea and over land more than 300 m2/s2 is possible due to friction, but almost devoid of CAPE. Tornado chance isn't high, but not ruled out nevertheless.

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