Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 02 Feb 2012 06:00 to Fri 03 Feb 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 02 Feb 2012 05:59
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the south-west Mediterranean mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the central Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for the east Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

A broad arctic trough is present over Europe, centered over Poland and Belarus. A trough axis will move across the Baltic Sea leading to intense snow showers and thunderstorms given steep lapse rates due to -46°C at 500 hPa and -20°C at 850 hPa. Over the Mediterranean, a strong westerly flow will be present through-out the period. In the wake of a short-wave trough that moves across Greece and Turkey today, a new trough amplifies over the west Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

Greece, Aegean, Turkey

A frontal zone affects the east Mediterranean. Showers and thunderstorms have formed along and north of this frontal zone in the range of the mid-level short-wave trough that enters Turkey during the day. As the mid-level trough moves north-eastward, convective activity will likely weaken during the next hours. However, rather strong vertical wind shear and upslope flow as well as increasing low-level moisture may support organized storms capable of producing excessive rain.

Western and central Mediterranean

Strong DCVA will provide lift and a deepening surface low is expected over the west Mediterranean. Cold low-level air spreads into the north Mediterranean. Along the frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms are expected given the rather moist low-level air mass (0-1km mixing ratio about 6 g/kg). These storms may organize given increasing low-level vertical wind shear as a westerly low-level jet forms north of the African coasts. A few supercells are not ruled out that may be capable of producing a tornado and locally large hail. The threat is rather limited, though. Main threat will liklely be severe wind gusts at the gust front of the approaching cold front that enters the African continent late in the period.

Over the central Mediterranean, numerous thunderstorms may develop ahead of the trough in a south-westerly flow leading to warm air advection. Excessive rain is forecast especially were upslope flow provides low-level lift.