Valid: Mon 30 Jan 2012 06:00 to Tue 31 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 30 Jan 2012 05:24
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Under the infuence of a blocking high over northeastern Europe, cold continental air from Russia is spreading out to the west. Low pressure is present in the western and eastern Mediterranean. Cold upper air has entered the area and created unstable conditions with thunderstorms. As the northern Mediterranean stabilizes today, the low intensifies near Tunesia and Sicily where warm air advection occurs. A frontal zone will drag over Sicily, southern Sardinia, into northeastern Algeria. Another band with thunderstorms will drag southward into Algeria, more to the west.
Generally wind shear is insufficient for severe phenomena, and while precipitation can last long in mentioned areas, absolute moisture content appears too low to pose a severe threat.