Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 26 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 24 Jan 2012 20:34
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Main macrosynoptic features at midlevels will be an extensive mid level low centered over the eastern part of Central Europe, a ridge over Western Europe and a deep trough over the Atlantic that is forecast to affect British Isles in the evening hours. Generally speaking, eastern half of Europe experiences an influx of arctic continental airmass from northeast (its source being widespread Siberian high), which is expected to advect southeastwards behind the cold front of the surface low affecting the Aegean region.

Conditions will be generally too hostile to support any serious chances of well organised and strong DMC, precluding issuance of any threat level. Nevertheless, three areas might experience some thunderstorm activity.

A/ Coastal areas of western British Isles
In the high lapse rate polar maritime airmass behind the cold front of the deep surface low, banded convection is forecast. Few lightnings might be recorded, but generally only weakly electrified convection is forecast due to very dry airmass (mixing ratios below 3 g/kg).

B/ Southwestern Iberia
Associated with the cut-off low, marginal instability is simulated, which might result in a few thunderstorms over the area. Wind shear should remain quite weak as well.

C/ Eastern Mediterranean
Amplifying trough from the mid-level low will also transform in a separate cyclonic vortex during this forecast period. In the exit region of the mid-level jet, surface low is expected to deepen with an advection of warm and humid airmass over the Aegeans and over southern Turkey. In the evening to night hours, a cold front will quickly progress across the area. Especially over SW Turkey, several rounds of DMC are forecast, but non-existent LLJ and only moderate mixing ratios preclude serious excessive rainfall risk.