Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 22 Jan 2012 06:00 to Mon 23 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 21 Jan 2012 18:36
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough, initially located over the British Isles, will cross the Benelux countries and Germany on Sunday afternoon. At its southwestern edge, very strong vertical shear is present over a broad region. Both HIRLAM and GFS suggest some very low instability along the cold front which might be sufficient for a narrow convective line with isolated severe wind gusts but this scenario is very questionable. Isolated thunder should be most likely in the vicinity of the upper cold core which will affect eastern Germany, Czech Rep and Poland during the afternoon / evening hours.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may also develop over Algeria where low-end instability and weak shear are expected.