Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 18 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 19 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 Jan 2012 22:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The breakdown of the blocking pattern continues as a large cyclonic vortex over Iceland expands further to the SE. As a consequence of the more zonal flow pattern over NW Europe, high pressure strengthens to the south over SW-Europe.The large upper trough over E-Europe weakens a bit with marginal eastward movement during the following 24 hours.

The main thunderstorm activity will be found over parts of the far NE Atlantic/N-North Sea and parts of the Norwegian Sea as cold air between 2-5 km AGL spreads to the east. A broad 15-% thunderstorm area was issued due to cold EL temperatures and robust convective precipitation signals in model data. Strong wind gusts and sleet will be the main hazard.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast over the W-Black Sea beneath the aformentioned upper trough.

A very sporadic and short-lived thunderstorm event may also occur over the S-Mediterranean (next to SE Spain and N-Africa), but expected very limited coverage does not warrant any thunderstorm area.