Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 13 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sat 14 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 12 Jan 2012 16:26
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A pronounced cyclonic vortex over Finland shifts slowly towards the south. Along its western fringe, cold air spreads southwards and covers most of CNTRL/E- Europe until the end of the forecast period. Strong ridging to the west keeps weather conditions stable.

The post frontal air mass features marginal BL moisture but steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8K/km. Hence, not much diabatic BL modification is needed for low-end SBCAPE build-up within the highlighted areas. Despite weak updraft strength with expected 100-300 J/kg CAPE, cold EL temperatures increase confidence in some electrified convection. Hence a coarse low-end thunderstorm area was introduced. We also added parts of the offshore areas with SSTs of 3-6 °C in the S-Baltic Sea, increasing towards the Kattegat. The main risk will be downward mixing of stronger winds as 850 hPa winds remain quite briskly (20-25 m/s). Strong wind gusts and marginal hail/sleet will be the main hazard. Despite favorable kinematics, the thermodynamic environment will be too hostile for longer lived/stronger updrafts and hence we did not add a tornado threat with that convection.