Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 12 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Jan 2012 21:40
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

At mid and upper levels of troposphere, a ridge stretches from Atlantic to Central Europe, with strong zonal flow at its northern flank. A short-wave trough will begin amplifying in this flow in the second half of the forecast during its progress towards Scandinavia. Eastern half of Europe will be dominated by low geopotentials in rather cold airmass which has advected all the way towards Southern Mediterranean. Short-wave trough over Southeastern Europe is expected to slowly transform into a cut-off low during the forecast period with surface cyclogenesis over southern Turkey.

Generally, there will be 2 regions which might experience DMC during the forecast period. The first is an area of the Norwegian Sea, especially the coastline areas, where high lapse rates arctic maritime airmass is being advected. Even though initiation should be plentiful, DMC will be likely only very weakly, if at all electrified due to relative dryness (mixing ratios below 3 g/kg) and very cold temperatures of airmass. Second area that could see some thunderstorms is the Southern and Southeastern Mediterranean, especially southern coastline of Turkey. Here, high lapse rates are generated thanks to the cold mid-levels and lift generated by the presence of trough/cut-off low.