Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Jan 2012 06:00 to Mon 09 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 07 Jan 2012 21:22
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An elongated upper trough over northern and central Europe digs southward and an associated surface low is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Genoa. As the southern tip of the upper trough passes the Alps, some low-end instability is created over the relatively warm Adriatic Sea. Later in the period, showers and thunderstorms are also possible over the Tyrrhenian Sea and central Mediterranean. Deep layer shear should be in order of 15 - 20 m/s over the Tyrrhenian Sea which is strong enough for some multicellular storms which may produce isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Overall storm coverage should be rather low and therefore no threat level is issued.

Remnants of another disturbance over the eastern Mediterranean will affect the coastal area of S/W Turkey and also the Bosporus region.