Valid: Sat 24 Dec 2011 06:00 to Sun 25 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 24 Dec 2011 07:16
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
Around a deep low with a core pressure around 952 hPa east of Iceland, convection is forecast in the cold maritime airmass between Iceland, Faroer and Norway. Very strong pressure gradients cause extreme winds. At the trough, around 40 m/s(80 kts) mean wind speed is predicted at 1000-3000m which may translate into gusts at the surface.
At the entry of a PV tongue into the Mediterranean a surface low intensifies along the Italian west coast, and some CAPE will develop. Shear and CAPE will be rather fragmented, a few storms may develop, moving slowly, but precipitable water isn't great either for a convective precipitation threat. Th activity may bring some waterspouts, though.
More significant CAPE and >20 m/s deep layer shear are present over the northeastern Mediterranean Sea, affecting mainly Turkish and Syrian coastal regions and perhaps Cyprus. Large hail and local excessive rain are possible there.