Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Dec 2011 06:00 to Sat 10 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Dec 2011 20:42
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK and Scotland, the North Sea, Denmark, N-Germany, parts of the S-Baltic Sea and adjacent areas mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DICUSSION

Severe to damaging wind gusts continue over parts of Denmark, S-Sweden and the Baltic Sea, before weakening from west to east. No DMC accompanies that wind field, so we did not include that in our warning scheme.

Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast beneath a large cyclonic vortex, placed over N-Europe. This activity was highlighted by a broad level 1, as wind field below 3 km remains quite strong (e.g. 850 hPa winds of 20 m/s or more). Hence, downward mixing may occur with severe wind gusts possible beneath showers/thunderstorms. Also, an isolated tornado event can't be ruled out with meager SBCAPE and strong LL shear overlap (e.g. NW coast of UK, far N-Germany and parts of Denmark)

Otherwise, no organized thunderstorm risk exists. An isolated storm may occur beneath a small upper low NW of Spain.