Valid: Tue 06 Dec 2011 06:00 to Wed 07 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Dec 2011 21:43
No threat levels have been issued.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A large long-wave trough dominates much of Europe today, with several mid-level disturbances embedded in the flow rounding the base. One short-wave trough affecting SW-ern Balkans and another one crossing western into central Europe. At surface, another cold front will rapidly move towards the Alps from the WNW. Models show some instability signal due to very cold mid levels along/behind the front, so some sporadic lightning activity is possible. Characterized by intense mid-level jet, a few strong gusts are possible along the frontal convergence over northern France and Benelux. Still, too limited activity to warrant any threat levels.
Strong onshore flow along the southern Adriatic and Ionian sea as well as Aegean sea will favour orographic (convective) precipitation over coastal mountainous terrain, leading into high precipitation sums. But seem unlikely to become severe. However, an isolated event or two still cannot be excluded if storms could persist for some longer time over the same areas along the coast.
Within the polar maritime airmass, widespread showers and isolated storms are again expected across the North Sea and towards the Baltics, while being rather low topped and non-severe. Showers of small hail seem to be the highest threat if some stronger cells occur there.