Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 Dec 2011 06:00 to Sun 04 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 Dec 2011 23:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive cyclonic vortex is situated over far N-Europe. CAA is forecast along its W/SW quadrant as -35 °C and less at 500 hPa spread SE wards. SSTs in the range of 8-11 °C beneath that air mass create supportive conditions for stronger updrafts. EL temperatures drop to -20°C and less so confidence in DMC is enhanced. Winds at 850 hPa are forecast to remain between 20-25 m/s, so downward mixing may bring strong to severe wind gusts to the surface. No focus is seen for e.g. any line-up of showers/thunderstorms, which may assist in a more concentrated swath of severe wind gusts. For now, we want to stay with a general thunderstorm area - a coarse one- but we want to stress the augmented probabilities for severe wind gusts with any DMC.

Cold mid-levels remain present over the Mediterranean. Again a very coarse general thunderstorm area will be the best choice to cover that activity, as any mesoscale feature (e.g. convergence zone) may produce a few thunderstorms. Shear remains very weak, so heavy rainfall will be the dominant risk with slow moving storms. We excluded the western part of the Mediterranean as mid-levels undergo some warming. Overall activity will be a sporadic one.