Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 02 Dec 2011 06:00 to Sat 03 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 Dec 2011 17:15
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strong upper trough pinches off over SW-Europe and dives to the south as a closed upper low. Further north, over N-Europe, the progressive pattern continues with numerous strong waves racing from west to east.
Moisture is quite sparse over most parts of Europe. Only the Mediterranean area has somewhat better BL moisture for isolated thunderstorm activity. Shear is weak, so nothing severe is expected.

A 960 hPa depression approaches Scotland during the end of the forecast. A well mixed maritime air mass spreads to the SE, characterized by weak CAPE and 30-35 m/s 850 hPa winds. Shallow convection is anticipated and severe wind gusts are likely with favorable downward mixing expected. Some signs for DMC are present mainly to the north of the strongest wind field, so no level was issued for that event. Anyhow, severe wind gusts spread to the SE, affecting Scotland and parts of the North Sea after 18Z.