Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 18 Nov 2011 06:00 to Sat 19 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Nov 2011 19:15
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

High pressure/ridging remains in place over Europe with mainly stable conditions present.

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible beneath a southward moving upper trough over the far E-Atlantic.

Another area of interest will be the W-Mediterranean...especially after sunset. Strengthening winds below 2 km AGL towards the Gulf of Lion may assist in some slow moving/training thunderstorms, but modest moisture content of the available air mass and weak forcing/CAPE limit confidence in severe convective rainfall amounts. Hence no level area was issued. However, locally heavy rainfall may affect the onshore areas over S-France, where a 15-% thunderstorm area was issued.

Sporadic thunderstorms are possible within the rest of the thunderstorm area all the way to Malta. Weak shear/CAPE assist in short-lived storms.