Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 17 Nov 2011 06:00 to Fri 18 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 16 Nov 2011 20:14
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

High pressure continues over most of Europe. Dry air masses have spread far to the south-west into the Iberian Peninsula. More moisture is located over the Mediterranean region as well as in the warm air advection regime over extremely west Europe. Whereas these warm air masses are characterized by poor lapse rates, steeper lapse rates can be found over the Mediterranean Sea. The best lapse rates are likely over the central and southern parts due to cold mid-levels. The low-level forcing is limited to upslope flow along the African coasts, but this forcing is expected to be sufficient for numerous thunderstorms. As these storms will affect the same region along the Algerian and Tunisian coasts, large amounts of precipitation are possible during the period. However, strong forcing and instability are not likely, and intense storms are not expected.