Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 01 Nov 2011 14:00 to Wed 02 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 Nov 2011 14:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for far far S-France (including Languedoc-Roussillon and Provence-Alps-Côte D'Azur) mainly for heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the main outlook.

DISCUSSION

... Level 1 ...

A cluster of showers and storms evolved over far S-France with favorable moisture influx from the Mediterranean. 12Z sounding from Nimes samples the environment very well with deep moisture and a modest LLJ. First reports already indicate that heavy rainfall occurs beneath those slow moving clusters of showers and storms and we want to reflect that by upgrading to a level 1. After sunset a gradual decrease in activity is expected although showers/isolated storms may keep going well into the night.

The rest of the general thunderstorm area was expanded significantly as new model data indicates a broad area with marginal favorable conditions for storms. However only sporadic activity is expected.