Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 22 Oct 2011 06:00 to Sun 23 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 22 Oct 2011 05:02
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for coastal southeastern Spain mainly for isolated excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

High pressure now dominates eastern and central Europe. Atlantic lows are slowly approaching southwestern Europe and will not yet reach during this period. Most convection takes place between Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, which may form a slight low pressure area with enhanced convective activity moving towards the Balearic islands early Sunday. Flash floods due to excessive rainfall are localy possible as onshore flow creates a convergence line and orographic lifting, which augment chances of persistent convection. Deep layer shear and 0-3 km SREH appear just large enough (15 m/s, 100-200 m²/s²) to also have some chance of supercells (with large hail) and long-lived multicells. Waterspouts are also well possible.
Also between Tunisia, southern Italy and Albania storms can occur. An isolated flash flood is not ruled out due to weak carrying flow but instability is low.